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	<title>Kriz Yonetimi</title>
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		<title>Kriz Yonetimi</title>
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			<item>
		<title>&#8220;Olası bir depremde tsunami Boğaz&#8217;ı vurur&#8221;</title>
		<link>http://krizyonetimi.wordpress.com/2009/11/13/olasi-bir-depremde-tsunami-bogazi-vurur/</link>
		<comments>http://krizyonetimi.wordpress.com/2009/11/13/olasi-bir-depremde-tsunami-bogazi-vurur/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Nov 2009 21:45:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>bahadirkhan</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Haber (News)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Turkce]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[6. Tsunami Uyarı Sistemleri Hükümetler Arası Eşgüdüm Toplantısı]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Başbakanlık Afet ve Acil Durum Yönetimi Başkanlığı]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[
6. Tsunami Uyarı Sistemleri Hükümetler Arası Eşgüdüm Toplantısı&#8217;nda, olası İstanbul depremi ile oluşacak tsunaminin 2 milyon insanı etkileyeceği ve 544 milyon dolarlık zarar vereceği belirtildi
Kuzey-Doğu Atlantik, Akdeniz ve Bağlantılı Denizler için Tsunami Uyarı Sistemi Hükümetlerarası Eşgüdüm Grubu toplantılarının altıncısı İstanbul&#8217;da başladı. UNESCO ile IOC gözlemcilerinin yanı sıra 30 üye ülkeden yaklaşık 80 delegenin katılımıyla Boğaziçi [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=krizyonetimi.wordpress.com&blog=4512553&post=916&subd=krizyonetimi&ref=&feed=1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class='snap_preview'><br /><p><img src="http://i.sabah.com.tr/2009/11/13/Haber/27846950000.jpg" alt="" /><br />
6. Tsunami Uyarı Sistemleri Hükümetler Arası Eşgüdüm Toplantısı&#8217;nda, olası İstanbul depremi ile oluşacak tsunaminin 2 milyon insanı etkileyeceği ve 544 milyon dolarlık zarar vereceği belirtildi<br />
Kuzey-Doğu Atlantik, Akdeniz ve Bağlantılı Denizler için Tsunami Uyarı Sistemi Hükümetlerarası Eşgüdüm Grubu toplantılarının altıncısı İstanbul&#8217;da başladı. UNESCO ile IOC gözlemcilerinin yanı sıra 30 üye ülkeden yaklaşık 80 delegenin katılımıyla Boğaziçi Üniversitesi Kandilli Rasathanesi ve Deprem Araştırma Enstitüsü&#8217;nün ev sahipliğinde yapılan toplantıda, olası İstanbul depremi ve yaratacağı tsunaminin etkileri konuşuldu. Başbakanlık Afet ve Acil Durum Yönetimi Başkanlığı Direktörü Hasan İpek, 2004 yılında yaşanan Sumatra depremi ve tsunami felaketinin dünya doğal afetler tarihinde yerini alarak tüm ülkelerin gündeminin en üst sırasına yerleştiğini ve yetkilileri tsunamiye karşı önlem almaya zorladığına dikkat çekti.<br />
<span id="more-916"></span><br />
1509&#8242;DA 6 METRELİK DALGALAR<br />
Açılış oturumunda Hükümetler Arası Koordinasyon Grubu adına konuşan Prof. Dr. Stefano Tinti de, Türkiye&#8217;de tsunami etkili depremin ilk kez 1509 yılında yaşandığını ve büyük hasar verdiğini hatırlatarak &#8220;Olası bir tsunami İstanbul&#8217;da 544 milyon doların üzerinde zarar verebilir. İstanbul&#8217;da olası bir depremin ardından oluşması muhtemel tsunami gündüzleri yaklaşık 2 milyon, akşamları ise 1.5 milyon kişinin yaşadığı Marmara kıyıları ve Boğaziçi&#8217;nde etkili olur&#8221; dedi. İstanbul&#8217;da 1509 yılında olan ilk tsunamide 6 metreye kadar yükselen dalgaların şehirde büyük hasar yarattığına dikkat çeken Boğaziçi Üniversitesi Kandilli Rasathanesi ve Deprem Araştırma Enstitüsü Başkanı Prof. Dr. Mustafa Erdik ise &#8220;Her yıl olma ihtimali yüzde 2 olan 7.2 şiddetindeki İstanbul depremi Tokyo ve San Fransisco şehirlerindeki deprem olasılıklarıyla aynı oranı paylaşıyor. İstanbul&#8217;u etkileyen tsunamiler yaklaşık yarım milenyum da bir gerçekleşiyor. Beklenen İstanbul depremi tsunami ile birlikte gelecek&#8221; diye konuştu. </p>
<p>5 YENİ ÖLÇÜM ALETİ<br />
Toplantıda, Kandilli Rasathanesi ve Deprem Araştırma Enstitüsü&#8217;nün erken uyarı sistemleri konusunda başarılı çalışmalar yaptığı, bir hafta içinde de 5 yeni sualtı ölçüm aletinin Marmara&#8217;ya yerleştirileceği kaydedildi.</p>
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			<media:title type="html">Bahadir Sahin</media:title>
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		<title>World Bank, Italy collaborate on disaster response</title>
		<link>http://krizyonetimi.wordpress.com/2009/11/13/world-bank-italy-collaborate-on-disaster-response/</link>
		<comments>http://krizyonetimi.wordpress.com/2009/11/13/world-bank-italy-collaborate-on-disaster-response/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Nov 2009 21:41:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>bahadirkhan</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[English]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Haber (News)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[April earthquake in L’Aquila]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Disaster Response]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Italian civil protection system]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[
The Italian Civil Protection Department and the World Bank are using experience gained from the response to a deadly earthquake in Italy earlier this year in efforts they said they hope will help other countries prepare for natural disasters. 
The organizations signed a memorandum of understanding Wednesday to collaborate further on lessons that can be [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=krizyonetimi.wordpress.com&blog=4512553&post=913&subd=krizyonetimi&ref=&feed=1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class='snap_preview'><br /><p><img src="http://assets.nydailynews.com/img/2009/04/07/alg_italy_earthquake.jpg" alt="" /><br />
The Italian Civil Protection Department and the World Bank are using experience gained from the response to a deadly earthquake in Italy earlier this year in efforts they said they hope will help other countries prepare for natural disasters. </p>
<p>The organizations signed a memorandum of understanding Wednesday to collaborate further on lessons that can be taken from the April earthquake in L’Aquila, which killed about 300 people and left some 40,000 homeless. </p>
<p>Among efforts already undertaken, the two groups have compiled an upcoming publication on rebuilding after disasters that draws on experiences in the L’Aquila quake.<br />
<span id="more-913"></span><br />
The memorandum calls for compiling and disseminating documentation on response to and recovery from the L’Aquila quake, focusing particularly on the Italian civil protection system’s efforts, the World Bank said in a statement. </p>
<p>The information will benefit not only the two organizations, but will be used by government officials and others in disaster-prone countries to help improve disaster response and recovery, the World Bank said. </p>
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			<media:title type="html">Bahadir Sahin</media:title>
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		<title>&#8220;ULUSAL AFET POLİTİKALARI BELİRLENMELİ&#8221;</title>
		<link>http://krizyonetimi.wordpress.com/2009/11/11/ulusal-afet-politikalari-belirlenmeli/</link>
		<comments>http://krizyonetimi.wordpress.com/2009/11/11/ulusal-afet-politikalari-belirlenmeli/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Nov 2009 21:33:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>bahadirkhan</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Haber (News)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Turkce]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[12 Kasım Depremi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[afet yonetimi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[doğal afetler]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://krizyonetimi.wordpress.com/?p=911</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
Mimarlar Odası Düzce Temsilciliği 12 Kasım Depreminin yıldönümü nedeniyle yaptığı açıklamada Kamu yararı ve ülke çıkarlarını gözeten ulusal afet politikaları belirlenmesi gerekti vurgulandı. 
Açıklamada afetlerden doğacak hasar, zarar ve can kayıplarının azaltılmasının en bilinen yolunun  Mimar, Mühendis, Şehir plancılarının ortak katkı ve çabalarıyla depreme dayanıklı alanları ve yapıları tasarlamak ve üretmek olduğu vurgulandı. 
 [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=krizyonetimi.wordpress.com&blog=4512553&post=911&subd=krizyonetimi&ref=&feed=1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class='snap_preview'><br /><p><img src="http://www.mimdap.org/images/dosya/deprembalamir/17agustos-apazari3.jpeg" alt="" /><br />
Mimarlar Odası Düzce Temsilciliği 12 Kasım Depreminin yıldönümü nedeniyle yaptığı açıklamada Kamu yararı ve ülke çıkarlarını gözeten ulusal afet politikaları belirlenmesi gerekti vurgulandı. </p>
<p>Açıklamada afetlerden doğacak hasar, zarar ve can kayıplarının azaltılmasının en bilinen yolunun  Mimar, Mühendis, Şehir plancılarının ortak katkı ve çabalarıyla depreme dayanıklı alanları ve yapıları tasarlamak ve üretmek olduğu vurgulandı. </p>
<p>    Açıklamada şu ifadelere yer verildi: “Doğu Karadeniz’den Marmara’nın batısına doğru uzanan fay hatları son yüzyılda kırılmaya başladı. En önemli konu geçmiş depremlerden pay çıkarmaktır. Önümüzdeki 10 yılda 5 ve üzeri büyüklükte, 70 yı lda ise 7 den büyük  deprem olacağı %100 olarak tespit edilmiştir. Tarihsel olarak depremler incelendiğinde, zaman içerisinde büyük hasarlı bir deprem olma olasılığı artmaktadır.<br />
Ülkemizdeki yapı stoğunun 19000- 1999 yılına kadar (100 yıl içinde) 149 deprem almış (hasar yapıcı niteliğinde), 578.544 bina yıkılmış veya ağır hasar almış, 100,000 insan yaşamını kaybetmiş, yılda 1 hasar yapıcı bir deprem yaşandığı, her yıl 6000 yapının yok olduğu, 1000 insanın depremde kaybedildiği, 300 milyon dlar, yıllık ekonomik kayıp olduğu araştırmalar neticesinde ortaya çıkmıştır.<br />
<span id="more-911"></span><br />
Öncelikle problemin ortaya çıkardığı rasyonel bir yaklaşıma ihtiyaç vardır. Sosyal, psikolojik, idari, hukuki ve mali şartların oluşması gerekmektedir. (1938 yılında çıkarılmış olan 3458 sayılı mühendislik ve mimarlık hakkında kanun) teknik kaygıların siyasi ve ticari kaygılardan önce gelmesi, işbirliği anlayışı ile doğru bir yapı denetim sürecinin ortaya çıkması sağlanmalıdır.<br />
    İmar ve yapı denetimi sisteminin risk yönetimi kapsayacak biçimde yenilenmesi ve zarar azaltma kapsamında gerekli kurumsal yaıplanma, mevzuat düzenlemeleri, toplumun afet tehlikesi ve riski konusunda bilinçlendirilmesi gerekmektedir.”</p>
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			<media:title type="html">Bahadir Sahin</media:title>
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		<title>Tropical Cyclone Phyan Hits India’s Western Coast Near Mumbai</title>
		<link>http://krizyonetimi.wordpress.com/2009/11/11/tropical-cyclone-phyan-hits-india%e2%80%99s-western-coast-near-mumbai/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Nov 2009 21:29:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>bahadirkhan</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[English]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Haber (News)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[crisis management]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[disaster management]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[emergency preparedness]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tropical Cyclone Phyan]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[
Tropical Cyclone Phyan hit India’s western coast near the commercial capital, Mumbai, prompting evacuations and storm warnings. 
Phyan crossed the coast between Mumbai and Alibag, to the south of the city, between 3:30 p.m. and 4:30 p.m. local time and was forecast to track north-northeastward, the India Meteorological Department said on its Web site. 
The [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=krizyonetimi.wordpress.com&blog=4512553&post=910&subd=krizyonetimi&ref=&feed=1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class='snap_preview'><br /><p><img src="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/data?pid=avimage&amp;iid=i5RwH7NaGtTg" alt="" /><br />
Tropical Cyclone Phyan hit India’s western coast near the commercial capital, Mumbai, prompting evacuations and storm warnings. </p>
<p>Phyan crossed the coast between Mumbai and Alibag, to the south of the city, between 3:30 p.m. and 4:30 p.m. local time and was forecast to track north-northeastward, the India Meteorological Department said on its Web site. </p>
<p>The system was likely to weaken from a deep depression to a depression during the night, after heavy rain and winds gusting to 70 kilometers (44 miles) per hour batter the coast of northern Maharashtra and southern Gujarat states, the department said in an advisory that was timed at 7 p.m. and posted at about 8:30 p.m. </p>
<p>Residents of slums in low-lying areas of Mumbai were told to evacuate, Mahesh Narvekar, the head of disaster management at Municipal Corp. of Greater Mumbai, said by phone. An alert for strong winds and rain was issued for all 24 wards of the city, which has a population of 18 million.<br />
<span id="more-910"></span><br />
All schools, colleges and government offices in Mumbai closed early, the municipality said. The municipality was prepared to provide temporary shelters to an estimated 10,000 people living in huts along the Mumbai coast, R.A. Rajeev, the acting municipal commissioner, told reporters today. </p>
<p>Flights to and from Mumbai airport were delayed by about 15 minutes, spokesman Manish Kalghatgi said in a text message. </p>
<p>Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust, India’s largest container port, halted operations at 2 p.m. local time as a precaution and will resume after the weather improves, S.N. Maharana, chief manager, said in a phone interview today. </p>
<p>Refining Complex </p>
<p>The IMD said more than 25 centimeters (10 inches) of rain may fall on coastal areas of Maharashtra and Gujarat. Fishermen in the region were advised not to take to sea. </p>
<p>Reliance Industries Ltd., owner of the world’s largest refining complex, and Oil &amp; Natural Gas Corp., said they have taken steps to protect their installations in the area. </p>
<p>Precautions are being taken at the two refineries at Jamnagar, which are operating normally, Tushar Pania, Reliance spokesman, said by telephone today. India’s biggest oil field, which accounts for half of the country’s crude production and is owned by ONGC, is among areas threatened by the storm. </p>
<p>“We have stopped our drilling operations and sorties by helicopters as a precautionary step,” R.S. Sharma, Chairman of Oil and Natural Gas Corp said. “All open air activities have to be suspended.” </p>
<p>The seventh and final one-day cricket match between India and Australia, scheduled for 2:30 p.m. today in Mumbai, was called off, said Ratnakar Shetty, the Chief Administrative Officer at Board of Control for Cricket in India. </p>
<p>The Australia in India ODIs 2009 series started on Oct. 25 and was due to finish today. Australia leads India 4-2. </p>
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			<media:title type="html">Bahadir Sahin</media:title>
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		<title>Deniz Feneri’nden selzedelere yardım</title>
		<link>http://krizyonetimi.wordpress.com/2009/09/17/deniz-feneri%e2%80%99nden-selzedelere-yardim/</link>
		<comments>http://krizyonetimi.wordpress.com/2009/09/17/deniz-feneri%e2%80%99nden-selzedelere-yardim/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Sep 2009 06:43:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>bahadirkhan</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Haber (News)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Turkce]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[
Deniz Feneri Derneği, Özellikle İstanbul’da selden zarar gören Bağcılar, Sultangazi, Gaziosmanpaşa, Arnavutköy ve Silivri ilçelerine yönelik kapsamlı yardım malzemelerini mağdur ailelere ulaştırmak üzere yapmış olduğu hazırlıklarına olanca hızıyla devam ediyor.
Felaketin yaşandığı günden beri her akşam bölgede yaklaşık 600 kişiye sandviç, kek, meyve suyu, hurma ve sudan oluşan yardım paketleri dağıtan Deniz Feneri Acil Yardım Ekipleri [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=krizyonetimi.wordpress.com&blog=4512553&post=909&subd=krizyonetimi&ref=&feed=1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class='snap_preview'><br /><p><img src="http://www.yeniresim.com/data/media/510/www.yeniresim.com_-_Sel_Resimleri_-_Sel_Sularna_Gmlm_Bir_Kamyon.jpg" alt="" /><br />
Deniz Feneri Derneği, Özellikle İstanbul’da selden zarar gören Bağcılar, Sultangazi, Gaziosmanpaşa, Arnavutköy ve Silivri ilçelerine yönelik kapsamlı yardım malzemelerini mağdur ailelere ulaştırmak üzere yapmış olduğu hazırlıklarına olanca hızıyla devam ediyor.</p>
<p>Felaketin yaşandığı günden beri her akşam bölgede yaklaşık 600 kişiye sandviç, kek, meyve suyu, hurma ve sudan oluşan yardım paketleri dağıtan Deniz Feneri Acil Yardım Ekipleri çalışmalarını sürdürüyor. Afet bölgesinde tespit edilen 150 selzedeye Gıda Kolisi, Et Kolisi, Giyim Kolisi, Battaniye, Temizlik malzemeleri dağıtımın yanında aynı ailelere verilmek üzere 250.000 TL değerinde olan yardımlar ulaştırıldı.</p>
<p>Deniz Feneri, yukarıda sayılan beş ilçedeki 50 aile için kapsamlı bir yardım operasyonu başlatıyor. 10 kamyonluk yardım malzemesinin gönderilmeye bugün başlandı.</p>
<p>İçinde her aileye verilmek üzere ikişer çekyat, çift kişilik yatak, soba, battaniye, yatak, yorgan, yastık, nevresim takımı, halı, mutfak malzemeleri, portatif masa, sandalye ve kırtasiye setleri içeren yardım malzemeleri bugün teslim ediliyor.</p>
<p>Bugünkü yardımlarla birlikte yapılacak yardımın tutarı 500 000 TL’ye ulaşacak.</p>
<p>Selden etkilenen ailelerde acil gıda, giysi ve ev eşyası ihtiyacı devam ediyor. Bağışlar geldikçe daha fazla sel mağduru aileye yardım dağıtımlarımız sürecek.</p>
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			<media:title type="html">Bahadir Sahin</media:title>
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		<title>ANALYSIS-Can we predict next world crisis?</title>
		<link>http://krizyonetimi.wordpress.com/2009/09/17/analysis-can-we-predict-next-world-crisis/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Sep 2009 06:36:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>bahadirkhan</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[English]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Haber (News)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://krizyonetimi.wordpress.com/?p=907</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
A year after the implosion of Lehman Brothers sent world markets into turmoil, the question of where the next global shock will come from &#8212; and whether it can be predicted and prepared for &#8212; has never been so urgent.
What makes the issue particularly difficult is that many of the events catastrophic enough to cause [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=krizyonetimi.wordpress.com&blog=4512553&post=907&subd=krizyonetimi&ref=&feed=1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class='snap_preview'><br /><p><img src="http://www.ileperu.org/images/crisis.jpg" alt="" /><br />
A year after the implosion of Lehman Brothers sent world markets into turmoil, the question of where the next global shock will come from &#8212; and whether it can be predicted and prepared for &#8212; has never been so urgent.</p>
<p>What makes the issue particularly difficult is that many of the events catastrophic enough to cause a major crisis &#8212; known as &#8220;fat tail risks&#8221; or as &#8220;Black Swans&#8221; by trader and author Nassim Nicholas Taleb &#8212; come from outside the realm of finance.</p>
<p>To be able to forecast what the next global shock will be, we need to be able to make predictions about geopolitics, war, terrorism, extreme weather events, earthquakes and pandemics.</p>
<p>In their book this year on fat tail risks, Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat of political risk consultancy Eurasia Group noted that they pose fundamental problems for accurate prediction.</p>
<p>Fat tails, they wrote, &#8220;represent the risk that a particular event will occur that appears so catastrophically damaging, unlikely to happen, and difficult to predict, that many of us choose simply to ignore it. Until it happens.&#8221;</p>
<p>A growing body of theory and evidence suggests that making accurate forecasts about rare catastrophic events is inherently impossible. But it also suggests a practical solution to mitigate the dangers &#8212; detailed scenario-planning by imaginative analysts who do not cling too tightly to mathematical models of reality.</p>
<p>DART-THROWING CHIMPANZEES</p>
<p>Whatever analysts attempt to forecast &#8212; the economy, the weather, the progress of epidemics, geopolitical change &#8212; the key problems are the same. Systematic forecasting requires a model that approximates reality. But is this feasible?<br />
<span id="more-907"></span><br />
Many models assume simple linear relationships between variables, but there are plenty of reasons to believe that in the real world, variables often react in a complex, volatile and non-linear way, particularly where extreme events are concerned.</p>
<p>Models also rely on the future resembling the past. But Taleb argues that by their very nature, &#8220;Black swan&#8221; events lie outside of normal experience and up-end traditional assumptions.</p>
<p>An even more fundamental spanner in the machinery of many models is that they need to find a way to capture the behaviour of a particularly volatile and unpredictable element &#8212; us.</p>
<p>Economists and political scientists have long worked on the assumption that people largely behave in a rational way that can be modelled and predicted. That assumption has been left in tatters by the global meltdown of the last couple of years.</p>
<p>Globalisation has meant forecasts now need to take into account hugely complex human interactions among millions or billions of people. And forecasting everything from war to weather has been further complicated by the fact that humans increasingly affect the environment around us in profound ways.</p>
<p>Empirical evidence on the accuracy of political forecasting is &#8212; to say the least &#8212; not very encouraging.</p>
<p>In the most ambitious attempt to analyse the effectiveness of political forecasters, psychologist Philip Tetlock polled 284 political and economic experts for multiple predictions over a 20-year period, for a total of 82,631 forecasts. The overall result was that expert opinion did no better than pure chance.</p>
<p>&#8220;When I have staged competitions, many forecasters fail to outperform the proverbial dart-throwing chimpanzee,&#8221; he wrote in a review last month.</p>
<p>DOOMED?</p>
<p>So where does this leave investors and businesses? Should we just accept we are helpless in the face of unquantifiable risks that we cannot foresee &#8212; what Bremmer and Keat call the &#8220;We are all doomed&#8221; approach to risk management?</p>
<p>Not necessarily. Many analysts say scenario planning and risk mapping provides at least a partial solution. While we may never be able to predict extreme events with any certainty, investors and executives can prepare for the future by analysing worst-case scenarios and considering how they would deal with them.</p>
<p>&#8220;Scenario analysis is a particularly useful means of understanding uncertainty and fat tails,&#8221; said Bremmer and Keat. &#8220;The main objective is to inspire creative problem solving and to spur managers to think about unthinkable outcomes.&#8221;</p>
<p>Some companies have put scenario planning at the heart of their decision making &#8212; Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L) is regarded as a leader in the field. And with its annual Global Risks outlook, the World Economic Forum tries to identify key risks and assess their likelihood, so investors and businesses can prepare.</p>
<p>Risk planners need to be open-minded and flexible. Tetlock&#8217;s study divided forecasters into two types &#8212; &#8220;hedgehogs&#8221; who doggedly base their forecasts on a single overarching theory of the world, and &#8220;foxes&#8221; who are eclectic and adapt when proven wrong. The foxes did much better in getting things right.</p>
<p>Scenarios must also always be adapted in the face of new information. In an influential paper on political risk forecasting, analyst Jeffrey Simon argued that it is crucial for investors and businesses to continually monitor news, and to update their scenarios and risk maps accordingly.</p>
<p>None of this means that all risks can be prepared for &#8212; there are always dangers lurking that we are not even aware of, what former U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld famously called &#8220;unknown unknowns&#8221;.</p>
<p>But even most sceptics on forecasting argue that by analytical thinking about what storms may come, we may just be better prepared to deal with them when they hit us. (Editing by Dhara Ranasinghe)</p>
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			<media:title type="html">Bahadir Sahin</media:title>
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		<title>A disaster that could have been less painful</title>
		<link>http://krizyonetimi.wordpress.com/2009/08/14/a-disaster-that-could-have-been-less-painful/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 14 Aug 2009 18:33:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>bahadirkhan</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[English]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Haber (News)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[disaster response measures]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[notorious flooding]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Typhoon Morakot]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[
With flooding caused by Typhoon Morakot wreaking severe damage in southern Taiwan, experts must now consider how such a disaster could have been repeated 50 years after the notorious flooding of Aug. 7, 1959. Over the past two years, Taiwan’s ability to handle disasters has deteriorated. Compared with their disaster response measures last year, the [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=krizyonetimi.wordpress.com&blog=4512553&post=905&subd=krizyonetimi&ref=&feed=1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class='snap_preview'><br /><p><img src="http://zunia.org/uploads/pics/GlobalDisasterRisk54.jpg" alt="" /><br />
With flooding caused by Typhoon Morakot wreaking severe damage in southern Taiwan, experts must now consider how such a disaster could have been repeated 50 years after the notorious flooding of Aug. 7, 1959. Over the past two years, Taiwan’s ability to handle disasters has deteriorated. Compared with their disaster response measures last year, the incompetent bureaucrats in President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) government have made no progress.</p>
<p>First, Ma criticized the Central Weather Bureau for “misleading” the government last year, and he has done so again this time.</p>
<p>Second, flooding caused by heavy rains damaged central and southern Taiwan in late May and early June last year. Ma, however, was busy having a health check, acting like a zhainan (stay-at-home youth) and avoiding the front line. After severe criticism, he finally inspected the disaster area in mid-June.</p>
<p>But to avoid losing face because people might think he was admitting to making a mistake, Ma claimed he was simply visiting old friends.</p>
<p>On the evening that Typhoon Morakot struck, Ma attended the wedding of Taiwanese poet Chan Che (詹澈) and his Chinese wife. Chan was a celebrity among the “red shirts” who protested against former president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁).</p>
<p>Third, in response to last year’s flooding, Council of Agriculture Minister Chen Wu-hsiung (陳武雄) said total losses were “only” about NT$20 million (US$608,000). Last Saturday, the media reported that former vice premier Chiou I-jen’s (邱義仁) watermelon farm in Kaohsiung County alone suffered losses of about NT$400,000 from Typhoon Morakot. Yet on the same day, the council estimated that losses in all of Taiwan amounted to only about NT$5 million.<br />
<span id="more-905"></span><br />
Are these figures credible? Although the council’s figure increased to NT$5 billion two days later, the estimate by SinoPac Holdings (永豐金控) was already three times as high.</p>
<p>In China, officials often overestimate the impact of a disaster to attract greater donations. But in Taiwan, officials often underestimate the impact of a disaster to conceal their incompetence. Both breeds excel at what they do.</p>
<p>A look at the human contribution to this disaster reveals both remote and immediate causes. The remote cause is the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) government, which has always seen itself as temporarily located in Taiwan. Based on this, a short-term approach was used in resource extraction and land management.</p>
<p>More recently, the government’s upgrade of select cities and counties was desgined to attract votes, not improve land management. This is a shortsighted policy that will damage Taiwan’s mountains and rivers.</p>
<p>On Aug. 9, Democratic Progressive Party Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) donated NT$1 million to Morakot’s victims. On Aug. 10, a friend called me from Hong Kong, asking how he could make a donation. Some enterprises and individuals have also extended a helping hand.</p>
<p>But the KMT’s heavyweights — both rich and very friendly with the Chinese communists — have been cold toward the victims. People still remember how Ma and first lady Chow Mei-ching (周美青) personally answered phone calls during a fundraising event for earthquake victims in China’s Sichuan Province last year.</p>
<p>But we have not seen Ma weep for Taiwan’s typhoon victims, who are struggling in a living hell. Instead, we watched him frowning as he met victims. Was this a sign of impatience?</p>
<p>Taiwan has been threatened by typhoons since ancient times. Despite this, we have built today’s Formosa, and we will pass this spirit on for generations to come.</p>
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			<media:title type="html">Bahadir Sahin</media:title>
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		<title>Gebze&#8217;de Nefes Kesen Deprem Tatbikatı</title>
		<link>http://krizyonetimi.wordpress.com/2009/08/14/gebzede-nefes-kesen-deprem-tatbikati/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 14 Aug 2009 18:30:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>bahadirkhan</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Calismalar (Studies)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Haber (News)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Turkce]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[17 Ağustos]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Deprem Tatbikatı]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gebze Sivil Savunma Müdürlüğü]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mahalle afet gönüllüleri]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[
Kocaeli&#8217;nin Gebze ilçesinde kamu kurumları tarafından Sultan Orhan Mahallesi&#8217;nde deprem tatbikatı gerçekleştirildi. Gerçeğini aratmayan tatbikata katılan ekipler tam not aldı.
Gebze Sivil Savunma Müdürlüğü tarafından organize edilen ve Gebze Belediyesi ile İlçe Emniyet Müdürlüğü, Garnizon Komutanlığı TÜBİTAK ve mahalle afet gönüllüleri ekiplerinin yanı sıra, kamu kuruluşları bünyesindeki sivil savunma ekiplilerinin katıldığı tatbikat nefes kesti. Yüze yakın [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=krizyonetimi.wordpress.com&blog=4512553&post=903&subd=krizyonetimi&ref=&feed=1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class='snap_preview'><br /><p><img src="http://www.medya73.com/images/contents/44679.jpg" alt="" /><br />
Kocaeli&#8217;nin Gebze ilçesinde kamu kurumları tarafından Sultan Orhan Mahallesi&#8217;nde deprem tatbikatı gerçekleştirildi. Gerçeğini aratmayan tatbikata katılan ekipler tam not aldı.</p>
<p>Gebze Sivil Savunma Müdürlüğü tarafından organize edilen ve Gebze Belediyesi ile İlçe Emniyet Müdürlüğü, Garnizon Komutanlığı TÜBİTAK ve mahalle afet gönüllüleri ekiplerinin yanı sıra, kamu kuruluşları bünyesindeki sivil savunma ekiplilerinin katıldığı tatbikat nefes kesti. Yüze yakın kurtarma ekibinin katıldığı deprem tatbikatı Sultan Orhan Mahallesi&#8217;ndeki bir metruk binada yapıldı. </p>
<p>Senaryo gereği, haberleşmenin kesildiğini, birçok yolun kapanıp bina ve işyerinin yıkıldığını varsayan ekipler, yaralı ve kurtarılmayı bekleyen vatandaşları aramaya başladı. Temsili olarak boş bir binaya gelen ekipler, burada çıkan yangına müdahale ederken, ardından yaralıları binadan tahliye etti. Bu sırada teknik cihazlar ile enkaz altında kalan vatandaşların yerlerini tespit eden ekipler, yıkıntıların arasından yaralıları sağ olarak kurtardı. Emniyet güçleri de güvenliği sağladı. </p>
<p>Gebze Kaymakamı Salih Karabulut, Belediye Başkanı Adnan Köşker, İlçe Emniyet Müdürü Ahmet Can ve diğer yetkililerin de takip ettiği tatbikatta ekiplerin çalışmaları gerçek deprem müdahalesini aratmadı. Kaymakam Salih Karabulut, tatbikata katılan ve görevlerini başarı ile tamamlayan tüm ekiplere teşekkür ederek, &#8220;İnşallah 17 Ağustosları bir daha yaşamayız. 1999&#8242;da binlerce vatandaşımızı kaybetmiş ve o acımızı yüreğimize gömmüştük. Elbette bu acının milletimize bir faturası oldu. Bugün bu depremlerin daha<br />
<span id="more-903"></span><br />
büyükleri başka ülkelerde yaşanıp daha az kayıpla atlanırken bizde böylesi bir yıkımın olması da son derece düşündürücüdür. Bizlerin gereken önlemleri alması gerekmektedir. Bu nedenle herkesin üzerine düşen sorumluğu yerine getirmesini bekliyoruz&#8221; dedi. </p>
<p>Belediye Başkanı Adnan Köşker de, gerek belediye sivil savunma ekipleri, gerekse deprem ve doğal afetlere karşı müdahale ekipleri ile depreme her an hazır olduklarını ifade ederek, &#8220;17 Ağustos&#8217;un acısı hala yüreğimizde. Bizlerin görevi bu tür acıların bir daha yaşanmaması için gerekeni yapmaktır. Vatandaşlarımızın da bu konuda hassas olmasını bekliyoruz. Gebze Belediyesi olarak her türlü afete hazırız&#8221; diye konuştu. </p>
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			<media:title type="html">Bahadir Sahin</media:title>
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		<title>A Million in China Evacuate Ahead of Typhoon</title>
		<link>http://krizyonetimi.wordpress.com/2009/08/09/a-million-in-china-evacuate-ahead-of-typhoon/</link>
		<comments>http://krizyonetimi.wordpress.com/2009/08/09/a-million-in-china-evacuate-ahead-of-typhoon/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 09 Aug 2009 21:45:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>bahadirkhan</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[English]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Haber (News)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China Evacuate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[natural disaster]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[
Typhoon Morakot slammed into the east coast of China on Sunday, packing winds up to 111 miles an hour, destroying hundreds of homes and forcing one million people to flee. 
A 4-year-old child was reported dead in Wenzhou, a city of nearly 1.4 million in Zhejiang Province, where officials said the storm had leveled more [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=krizyonetimi.wordpress.com&blog=4512553&post=900&subd=krizyonetimi&ref=&feed=1" />]]></description>
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Typhoon Morakot slammed into the east coast of China on Sunday, packing winds up to 111 miles an hour, destroying hundreds of homes and forcing one million people to flee. </p>
<p>A 4-year-old child was reported dead in Wenzhou, a city of nearly 1.4 million in Zhejiang Province, where officials said the storm had leveled more than 300 homes. The child was among five people buried when the winds collapsed five adjacent houses.</p>
<p>The authorities said that the storm was whipping up waves as high at 26 feet in the East China Sea and in the strait between mainland China and Taiwan, which was battered by the typhoon on Saturday.</p>
<p>In Taiwan, which suffered its worst flooding in a half-century, three people were killed and 31 were missing and feared dead, Taiwan’s Disaster Relief Center told The Associated Press on Sunday. </p>
<p>Sixteen of the missing were from one family that had lived in a makeshift house in Kaohsiung, in the island’s south, that was swept away by the waters.</p>
<p>The island was swamped by more than 80 inches of rain, according to the Central Weather Bureau. In southeastern Taitung County, a six-story hotel collapsed into a river after torrential rains eroded its foundation, but officials said all 300 guests had been safely evacuated.</p>
<p>More than 170,000 people remained without power on Monday, the government said.</p>
<p>The typhoon, the eighth of the season, hit the Chinese mainland at 4:20 p.m. on Sunday at Xiapu County, in north Fujian Province. China’s state-run Xinhua news service said that more than 490,000 people had been moved to safety in Fujian, and 48,000 boats summoned back to harbor.<br />
<span id="more-900"></span><br />
In Zhejiang Province, between Fujian and Shanghai, another 505,000 people were evacuated and 35,000 boats called in.</p>
<p>Both provinces are manufacturing centers with large port cities. Shanghai, just north of the typhoon’s landfall, was spared the worst winds but nevertheless canceled airline flights and lowered river reservoirs to prepare for flooding.</p>
<p>Trees were uprooted and some snapped apart in Fujian Province, Xinhua reported, and farmers struggled with nets to recapture fish flushed out of fish farms.</p>
<p>Xinhua said that relief teams were distributing food and water to rural villagers who had been stranded by high waters. By Sunday night, meteorologists reported that the typhoon had degraded close to tropical storm status, with 74 mile-an-hour winds.</p>
<p>Morakot, which means emerald in Thai, had struck the Philippines earlier, killing 21 people, including one French and two Belgian tourists, according to the National Disaster Coordinating Council there. Seven others were reported missing.</p>
<p>The government reported that more than 83,000 Philippines residents were affected by floodwaters and landslides, and 22,000 had been evacuated.</p>
<p>In the South China Sea, Xinhua reported that three fishermen were dead and at least 26 mariners were missing in the wake of tropical storm Goni, which had struck China’s southern Guangdong Province on Tuesday and left Hainan Province on Sunday.</p>
<p>Afghan Plane Turned Back</p>
<p>BEIJING (AP) — An Afghan plane bound for the restive western Chinese region of Xinjiang was sent back to Afghanistan after a bomb threat, Chinese media said Sunday.</p>
<p>The airline, Kam Air, said the plane left Kabul and was crossing Kyrgyzstan on its way to Urumqi, Xinjiang, when it was told to turn back. </p>
<p>The Xinhua News Agency said there had been a bomb threat and that Urumqi airport authorities had been told not to let the plane land. </p>
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			<media:title type="html">Bahadir Sahin</media:title>
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		<title>AFET ÇELİŞKİSİ MECLİS’TE</title>
		<link>http://krizyonetimi.wordpress.com/2009/07/31/afet-celiskisi-meclis%e2%80%99te/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 01 Aug 2009 02:10:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>bahadirkhan</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Haber (News)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Turkce]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[acil yardım ödeneği]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AFET ÇELİŞKİSİ]]></category>

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CHP Genel Saymanı Mustafa Özyürek, Bayındırlık ve İskân Bakanı Mustafa Demir’e “Afet kararnamesini dün imzaladım. Giresun bölgesi şu anda afet bölgesidir’ şeklinde TV’lerden canlı olarak yayınlanan açıklamanızdan niçin döndünüz?” diye sordu.
CHP Genel Saymanı Mustafa Özyürek, Giresun’un afet bölgesi ilan edilmesinden vazgeçilmesini Meclis gündemine taşıdı.
Özyürek, Bayındırlık ve İskân Bakanı Mustafa Demir’in yazılı olarak yanıtlaması istemiyle TBMM [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=krizyonetimi.wordpress.com&blog=4512553&post=898&subd=krizyonetimi&ref=&feed=1" />]]></description>
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CHP Genel Saymanı Mustafa Özyürek, Bayındırlık ve İskân Bakanı Mustafa Demir’e “Afet kararnamesini dün imzaladım. Giresun bölgesi şu anda afet bölgesidir’ şeklinde TV’lerden canlı olarak yayınlanan açıklamanızdan niçin döndünüz?” diye sordu.</p>
<p>CHP Genel Saymanı Mustafa Özyürek, Giresun’un afet bölgesi ilan edilmesinden vazgeçilmesini Meclis gündemine taşıdı.</p>
<p>Özyürek, Bayındırlık ve İskân Bakanı Mustafa Demir’in yazılı olarak yanıtlaması istemiyle TBMM Başkanlığına bir soru önergesi verdi.<br />
Karadeniz Bölgesinde Artvin, Şavşat, Ordu, Perşembe ve Giresun’da meydana gelen sel felaketlerinin büyük hasarlara ve can kayıplarına yol açtığını ifade eden Özyürek, bölge halkının kendilerinin yalnız bırakıldığından, Hükümet’in yeterli destek sağlamadığından şikâyet ettiğini bildirdi. Özyürek, Bakan Demir’in şu soruları yanıtlamasını istedi:<span id="more-898"></span></p>
<p>“2009 yılı bütçesinde acil yardım ödeneği olarak kaç lira ayrıldı?<br />
Bu güne kadar illere (ilçeler ve tarihler itibariyle) (Belediye ve/veya özel idare) tahsis edilen ödeneklerin miktarı ne kadardır?</p>
<p>Acil yardım ödeneğinden bugüne kadar ne kadar harcandı, bütçede kalan miktar ne kadardır?<br />
29 Temmuz 2009 tarihinde sel felaketinden büyük zarar gören Giresun’u ziyaretinizde ‘Afet kararnamesini dün imzaladım. Giresun bölgesi şu anda afet bölgesidir’ şeklinde TV’lerden canlı olarak yayınlanan açıklamanızdan niçin döndünüz?”</p>
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